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  • Inflation declined in August, reaching its lowest level since February 2021 and setting the stage for an expected policy rate cut from the Fed.
  • Jobless claims rose marginally last week to 230K. The pace of layoffs remains low even as the labor market shows signs of cooling.
  • Wholesale prices showed a mild increase of 0.2% in August, reinforcing indications the inflation rate is returning to low pre-pandemic levels.

Housing News

  • August’s shelter inflation rate was down from its 8.2% peak in March 2023, but the 0.5% monthly gain was the highest since early 2024.
  • As rates moved lower last week, total mortgage demand grew 1.4%. Purchase apps rose 2%, and refinances were up 1% for the week.
  • Homeowners are sitting on more than $32 trillion in home equity, an all-time high. The average owner has $214K in equity.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


  • The Labor Department reports July job openings slumped to their lowest level since January 2021.
  • In another sign of a slowing labor market, companies added fewer new jobs in August than any month since the start of 2021, according to ADP.
  • However, the US services sector expanded at a modest pace for a 2nd month in August, though there are signs momentum is fading.

Housing News

  • Mortgage refinance demand is 94% higher than a year ago. Purchase apps rose only 3% for the week and were 4% lower than a year ago.
  • Inventory of available single-family homes rose slightly to 704K last week, though the pace of growth has slowed.
  • August was the most affordable month for housing since February due to slower home price growth and lower rates, according to ICE.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


  • Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed most members felt a policy rate cut would be appropriate at the next meeting.
  • Markets are already fully pricing in a September cut, which would be the first since the emergency easing in the early days of the pandemic.
  • Unemployment applications barely rose last week. The 4-week average, which smooths out some volatility, fell to its lowest level in a month.

Housing News

  • Fannie Mae economists say the recent decline in mortgage rates is not enough to increase the number of homes sold in the foreseeable future.
  • However, July home sales broke a 4-month losing streak as supply rose nearly 20% over last year. The NAR says home sales are still sluggish.
  • Fannie Mae is forecasting mortgage rates will average 6.4% by the end of this year and 5.9% by the end of 2025.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


  • Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed most members felt a policy rate cut would be appropriate at the next meeting.
  • Markets are already fully pricing in a September cut, which would be the first since the emergency easing in the early days of the pandemic.
  • Unemployment applications barely rose last week. The 4-week average, which smooths out some volatility, fell to its lowest level in a month.

Housing News

  • Fannie Mae economists say the recent decline in mortgage rates is not enough to increase the number of homes sold in the foreseeable future.
  • However, July home sales broke a 4-month losing streak as supply rose nearly 20% over last year. The NAR says home sales are still sluggish.
  • Fannie Mae is forecasting mortgage rates will average 6.4% by the end of this year and 5.9% by the end of 2025.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News

 


  • Retail sales accelerated in July by the most since early 2023, coming in much higher than expected and signaling a resilient economy.
  • Inflation data showed a drop in both consumer and wholesale inflation. The Consumer Price Index fell below 3% for the first time since 2021.
  • Jobless claims fell for a second week to the lowest level since July, signaling the labor market isn't weakening as much as speculated.

Housing News

  • Builder confidence declined in August despite falling mortgage rates. Housing affordability remains a top concern for prospective homebuyers.
  • There are now 693K single-family homes on the market, a 1.3% increase for the week and almost 41% more than last year.
  • Mortgage apps reached their highest level since January 2023. Refinance apps jumped 35% and purchase apps rose 3% for the week.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


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