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  • Markets are on edge as the Iran conflict pressures oil prices and stokes inflation fears, creating uncertainty for the economic outlook.
  • Economists are starting to shift their forecasts toward a recession, with Moody's Analytics projecting the chances as high as 49% in the next year. 
  • Markets now see little likelihood of a Fed policy rate cut in 2026 and have even started to anticipate a policy rate hike before year's end.

Housing News

  • As mortgage rates have risen, demand has softened. Total application volume dropped 10% and purchase apps fell 5% for the week.
  • NAHB reports around 47% of U.S. housing stock was built before 1980. Owner-occupied homes have a median age of 42 years.
  • The number of home flips hit a 4-year low in 2025, dropping 4% year over year, per Realtor.com. Gross profits fell from 32% to 25%.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


 

  • The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at this week's meeting but signaled concern that inflation remains a problem and future cuts aren't certain.
  • Wholesale prices rose sharply in February, providing another sign that inflation persists even aside from rising energy costs. 
  • Jobless claims last week fell to the lowest level since January, signaling limited layoffs and labor market resilience.

Housing News

  • Builder sentiment edged higher in March, though affordability concerns remain due to high construction costs and limited land and labor.
  • Pending home sales unexpectedly increased in February, likely driven by improved affordability and lower mortgage rates.
  • New home sales, however, plunged in January. It was the biggest drop in 13 years and a troubling sign for builders heading into the spring market.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


  • Consumer inflation met expectations in February, slowing from January’s level and marking the lowest core annual rate since 2021.
  • The budget deficit surpassed $1 trillion for the fiscal year through February but was sharply lower than the same period a year ago. 
  • New jobless claims fell last week, easing concerns about labor market weakness after February’s surprise drop in employment.

 

Housing News

  • Existing home sales grew unexpectedly in February. Lower mortgage rates and steady prices encouraged buyers to step back into the market.
  • Housing supply improved slightly in February. Inventory rose 4.9% to 1.29 million homes, and the median home price reached $398K.
  • Single family housing starts fell in January, and building permits dropped 5.4%. However, multifamily construction surged about 30%.

 

 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News

 


  • Oil prices jumped this week as the Middle East conflict raised concerns about shipping and supply restraints in the global oil market.
  • Rising oil prices renewed inflation fears and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing rates higher. 
  • Current labor data, including unemployment claims and the ADP private payroll report, gave conflicting views of labor market strength.

Housing News

  • Rates briefly hit 4-year lows last week, moving purchasers off the fence. Purchase apps rose 6.1% for the week and 10% year over year.
  • Homebuyer preferences are shifting from open layouts toward more traditional designs with better privacy and energy efficiency, per the NAR.
  • HousingWire reports property taxes and homeowners insurance account for an average of 21% of monthly payments, impacting affordability.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


 

  • The labor market continues to show resilience. Jobless claims came in lower than expected last week, indicating layoffs remain relatively low.
  • Consumer confidence was better than expected in February, though the share of consumers viewing jobs as "hard to get" reached a 5-year high. 
  • The prospect of being replaced by AI is leading higher income workers to stay in their jobs longer, reports CNBC.

Housing News

  • ICE reports home prices grew 0.5% in January, a slight slowdown from 2025’s annual increase of 0.6%.
  • Despite headlines of rates hitting a 4-year low, total mortgage application volume was basically flat, rising just 0.4% for the week.
  • President Trump highlighted taxes, inflation, and trade in his State of the Union address, making only a passing reference to housing.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


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