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  • Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed most members felt a policy rate cut would be appropriate at the next meeting.
  • Markets are already fully pricing in a September cut, which would be the first since the emergency easing in the early days of the pandemic.
  • Unemployment applications barely rose last week. The 4-week average, which smooths out some volatility, fell to its lowest level in a month.

Housing News

  • Fannie Mae economists say the recent decline in mortgage rates is not enough to increase the number of homes sold in the foreseeable future.
  • However, July home sales broke a 4-month losing streak as supply rose nearly 20% over last year. The NAR says home sales are still sluggish.
  • Fannie Mae is forecasting mortgage rates will average 6.4% by the end of this year and 5.9% by the end of 2025.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News

 


  • Retail sales accelerated in July by the most since early 2023, coming in much higher than expected and signaling a resilient economy.
  • Inflation data showed a drop in both consumer and wholesale inflation. The Consumer Price Index fell below 3% for the first time since 2021.
  • Jobless claims fell for a second week to the lowest level since July, signaling the labor market isn't weakening as much as speculated.

Housing News

  • Builder confidence declined in August despite falling mortgage rates. Housing affordability remains a top concern for prospective homebuyers.
  • There are now 693K single-family homes on the market, a 1.3% increase for the week and almost 41% more than last year.
  • Mortgage apps reached their highest level since January 2023. Refinance apps jumped 35% and purchase apps rose 3% for the week.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


  • The labor market softened in July. Just 114K new jobs were added, and unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021.
  • Shipping giant Maersk, considered a barometer for global trade, is not seeing signs of a U.S. recession, as freight demand remains robust.
  • Markets now anticipate the Fed will begin slashing policy rates with a half-point cut in September and a full point by year's end. 

Housing News

  • Realtor.com reports home sellers slashed prices in July at the fastest pace in 2 years, with price cuts on 18.9% of listings compared to 3.4% last year.
  • July’s for-sale inventory was up 37% year over year, according to ICE, with 1 in 5 major markets at or above pre-pandemic inventory levels.
  • Refinance applications were up 16% for the week and 59% year over year. Purchase apps rose 1% for the week but were down 11% from last year.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News

 


  • The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at this week's meeting but signaled cuts could come as soon as its next meeting in September.
  • Consumer confidence picked up unexpectedly in July but stayed in the tight range of the past 2 years amid lingering inflation worries.
  • Job openings fell slightly in June, and rates of hiring and quits were both the lowest since 2020, all signs of a softening labor market. 

Housing News

  • Pending home sales rebounded in June. Increased supply and moderating mortgage rates helped get buyers off the sidelines.
  • NAHB says builders are cutting prices more often, with 31% reporting reductions in July compared to 29% in June and 25% in May.
  • Purchase applications fell 1.5% last week and were down 14% year-over-year. Refi apps fell 7% for the week and 32% from last year.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


  • Economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the 2nd quarter. The 2.8% initial reading doubled the 1st quarter's 1.4% growth rate.
  • Jobless claims remained above 220K for the 9th straight week. The 4-week continuing claims average rose to its highest level since December.
  • Markets continue to speculate the Fed will not cut its policy rate at next week's meeting but will start reducing rates in September. 

Housing News

  • Home prices continued their rise and set a new high in June. The median price of an existing home increased 4.1% to $426,900.
  • June's existing home sales were down, marking the slowest pace since December. Inventory jumped 23.4% from a year ago to a 4.1-month supply.
  • New home sales also fell last month, hitting a 7-month low. Pundits blame the ongoing challenges from higher mortgage rates and home prices.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


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