• Minutes from last month's Fed meeting show a consensus to start reducing balance sheet holdings by $95 billion a month, to be announced in May.
  • Fed members also support multiple half point policy rate hikes this year. Along with balance sheet runoff, this supports higher mortgage rates.
  • Economic signals such as an inverted yield curve for long- and short-term Treasuries point to a possible recession to come in 2023.

  • Higher mortgage rates have pushed refinance applications down 41% from a year ago, but purchase apps were down just 9% due to tight inventory.
  • According to, buyers are paying about 30% more for a house than they would have a year ago due to higher sales prices and rates.
  • Among home projects, a new home office and hardwood floor refinishing brought homeowners the most joy, a recent NAR/NARI survey found.