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  • Markets are on edge as the Iran conflict pressures oil prices and stokes inflation fears, creating uncertainty for the economic outlook.
  • Economists are starting to shift their forecasts toward a recession, with Moody's Analytics projecting the chances as high as 49% in the next year. 
  • Markets now see little likelihood of a Fed policy rate cut in 2026 and have even started to anticipate a policy rate hike before year's end.

Housing News

  • As mortgage rates have risen, demand has softened. Total application volume dropped 10% and purchase apps fell 5% for the week.
  • NAHB reports around 47% of U.S. housing stock was built before 1980. Owner-occupied homes have a median age of 42 years.
  • The number of home flips hit a 4-year low in 2025, dropping 4% year over year, per Realtor.com. Gross profits fell from 32% to 25%.

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News