• Inflation expectations for the next year fell to a median 6.3% in April, a 0.3% decrease from the record high the previous month.
  • However, producer prices rose 11% in April, signaling continuing elevated consumer inflation in the near future.
  • Last week's jobs data showed slightly more jobs than expected added in April in an increasingly tight labor market and despite surging inflation.

  • Purchase mortgage applications rose 5% over the previous week. Although apps were down 8% from a year ago, that number is shrinking.
  • Apps for adjustable rate mortgages, which often have a lower starting rate than 30 yr fixed, surged to a 14-yr high, comprising 11% of apps.
  • Lumber prices are falling, down 30% and reaching their lowest level for the year. Prices are still above historical levels but could continue to drop.