GREENWAY BLOG

9 May 2025

MarketMinute | First-time buyers are leading the purchase market

The Fed held its policy rate steady at its May meeting, warning of growing inflation and unemployment risks amid trade policy uncertainty. Unemployment claims fell last week. After spiking briefly at the end of April, current levels again signal a stable labor market. April's ISM data was mixed. Manufacturing activity contracted for a 2nd straight month, while the services sector grew modestly.   Buyers returned to the spring market despite economic jitters. Purchase mortgage apps rose 11% for the...

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7 May 2025

Rate Watch: The Fed holding rates for now

  As expected, the Federal Reserve Board maintained its current policy rate at its May meeting. Despite recent positive indicators, the Board took a wait-and-see approach to rate cuts due to increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. What exactly did the Fed say ? The Fed’s statement described solid labor market conditions and slightly elevated inflation but emphasized growing risks in both areas. These risks present unique challenges in that growth in unemployment would dictate cuts yet also exacerbate inflation, which would usually result in rate increases. The statement reiterated that future action will be based on 'incoming data, the...

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25 April 2025

MarketMinute | Home builders are going small

The Fed's Beige Book said trade uncertainty, especially around tariffs, dragged down outlooks across several U.S. regions. Durable goods orders surged 9.2% in March, driven by a rush to buy big-ticket items like autos and appliances ahead of impending tariffs. Jobless claims rose slightly to 222K. The labor market remained steady as businesses avoided layoffs despite economic and tariff uncertainties.   Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March, the largest monthly drop since November 2022. The median...

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18 April 2025

MarketMinute | Rates create a call to ARMs

Retail sales saw their biggest jump in more than 2 years last month as consumers rushed to buy ahead of tariffs. Fed Chair Powell reiterated this week that the Fed must ensure tariffs don’t trigger a persistent rise in inflation, making rate cuts unlikely. Unemployment claims fell to a 2-month low last week, evidence companies weren't turning to large-scale layoffs as tariffs hit.  Builder sentiment stayed negative in April. Tariff worries and high material costs outweighed a slight boost from...

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11 April 2025

MarketMinute | How are home prices faring?

Last week's tariff announcement, followed by this week's news of a 90-day pause on some of those tariffs, sent markets into a tailspin. The Consumer Price Index showed cooling inflation in February. Many economists remain concerned about a tariff-induced increase. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting showed concerns about stagflation, a period of slowing economic growth paired with rising inflation.  ICE reports more than 1/4 of major housing markets have pre-pandemic inventories, with 18...

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